French trader wins $49m in bets on Trump after commissioning unique kind of polls

Trader known as ‘Théo’ took insights from surveys which asked people how they thought their neighbours would vote

A mystery French trader known as the “Trump whale” is set to reap almost $50 million in profit after betting more than $30 million on the Republican candidate winning the US presidential election.
“Théo”, as the trader called himself, said he reaped the astronomical winnings by shunning mainstream polls and turning to so-called “neighbour” surveys that ask people who they think their neighbours will vote for, rather than themselves. He said some of these he commissioned himself.
Not only did this help him see Mr Trump winning the race, and the “blue wall” swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, it led him to bet that Mr Trump would win the popular vote – an outcome that many pollsters and observers saw even more unlikely than clinching the presidency itself.
He said French polls were far more accurate than those in the US.
Now, he is set to rake in a huge payout. He made his bets on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, using four anonymous accounts under the nickname Fredi9999. Although he has declined to share his identity, he told the Wall Street Journal that he had bet against the accuracy of polling data.
Describing himself as a wealthy Frenchman who had previously worked as a trader for several banks, he told the Journal that he began applying his mathematical know-how to analyse US polls over the summer.
Polymarket has corroborated some parts of his story, saying that the individual behind the bets was a French national with extensive trading experience and a financial services background.
Théo surmised that the polls were overstating support for the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris.
As the election results began to roll in Tuesday evening, he said he woke up in the middle of the night in France to monitor the returns.
“I am very happy and confident for my bet,” he wrote after Mr Trump’s strong showing in Florida boded well for his long-shot bet on the popular vote.
In messages sent privately to a reporter before election day, Théo predicted that Mr Trump would take 49 or 50 per cent of all votes cast, beating Harris. He also predicted that Mr Trump would win six of the seven battleground states.
Théo said he placed the Trump bets using his own money and had “absolutely no political agenda”. However, it cannot be ruled out that Théo has links to a political organisation or Trump allies, according to the Journal.
In his emails and a Zoom conversation with a reporter, Théo slammed mainstream-media outlets’ polls that, in his view, were biased toward Democrats.
“In France this is different!! The pollster credibility is more important: they want to be as close as possible to the actual results. Culture is different on this,” he wrote.
Théo shared a table of numbers he had compiled based on RealClearPolitics polling averages, showing that Mr Trump had over-performed his swing-state polling numbers in 2020. Given the tight polls in swing states in 2024, Théo reasoned that a similar over-performance by Mr Trump would easily push him into the lead.
Polls failed to account for the “shy Trump voter effect”, Théo said. Either Trump backers were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported the former president, or they did not want to participate in polls, Théo wrote.
To solve this problem, he argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbour polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbours to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbours plan to vote for.
Several of these conducted in September showed Harris’s support was several percentage points lower when respondents were asked who their neighbours would vote for, compared with the result that came from directly asking which candidate they supported.
To Théo, this was evidence that pollsters were – once again – underestimating Mr Trump’s support. When he placed his bets, the odds of Mr Trump winning were about 40 per cent.
He also commissioned his own surveys to measure the neighbour effect, using a major pollster whom he declined to name. The results, he wrote, “were mind blowing to the favour of Trump”.
Théo declined to share those surveys, saying his agreement with the pollster required him to keep the results private. But he argued that U.S. pollsters should use the neighbour method in future surveys to avoid another embarrassing miss.
“Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured that neighbour effect,” Théo said.
Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market platform that allows users to bet on real-world event outcomes using cryptocurrencies.
Launched in 2020, it grew in popularity during the lead up to the US election, reaching $2.5 billion in bets in October, according to Dune Analytics.
Despite being based in New York, the platform is currently inaccessible to US residents. Instead, it can be used in other parts of the world, such as France, where it has been used heavily.
Its popularity surge has caused France’s gambling regulator, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), to consider a ban on the platform in the wake of the huge bet, arguing it is subject to France’s gambling laws despite being related to cryptocurrency.
“Even if Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies in its operations, it remains a betting activity, and this is not legal in France,” a source close to the ANJ told Bloomberg.
“We are familiar with this site and are currently examining its operation and its compliance with French legislation on gambling.”
Polymarket is also thought to have played an active role in the presidential election and was used by Mr Trump’s campaign team, which “literally found out they were winning from Polymarket”, according to Shayne Coplan, the company’s chief executive.